OzDemocracy

There is much talk in the media and blogosphere of an election wipeout if the Liberal party does not support the governments carbon pollution reduction scheme (CPRS) in the senate. This prediction is based on the high number of people who want something done about climate change and the current dismal polling figures for the party. Although on the surface it may appear that the Liberals would lose an election based on climate change what is not so certain is whether they would lose an election based on the CPRS.

In Nov of 09 Morgan conducted polling concerning both climate change and the CPRS. The results found that 66% of people either believed, we had to act on climate change now or that it was already too late. This figure was consistent with other polling showing a high majority are concerned and want something done. The same poll showed however that only 50% approved of the governments CPRS, down from 55% three months earlier.

Given the obvious scepticism of many in the Coalition ranks with regards to climate change it might be hard to move the debate on from the science. If the Coalition does manage to do so however, they may have an election winning tactic in blocking the CPRS and forming an alternative solution.

Tony Abbott has quit the Coalition frontbench in a likely move to contest the Liberal party leadership against Malcolm Turnbull. The reason Mr. Abbott has given for his resignation is Mr. Turnbull’s unwillingness to delay the Coalition support of the emissions trading scheme (ETS), currently being debated in the senate.

Since Mr. Abbott’s resignation several other shadow frontbench MP have also resign including Senate leader Nick Minchin, Deputy leader Eric Abetz, Sophie Mirabella and Tony Smith.

Despite this mass resignation of shadow frontbench MPs Mr. Turnbull has remained unwilling to give up his leadership or the fight to pass the governments ETS.

As a result of the likely leadership move on Mr. Turnbull, the Rudd government is considering guillotining the senate debate of the emissions trading scheme.

Update

Tony Abbott has announced  he will challenge Malcolm Turnbull for the Liberal leadership on Monday if he does not change his mind on supporting the governments climate change bill. The Turnbull camp also looks like supporting Joe Hockey for the leadership if there is a successful spill motion.

Malcolm Turnbull will continue to be the Liberal party leader for the time being after a spill motion was lost. According to reports the secret ballot for the leadership spill was lost 48 - 35, which was moved by Western Australian backbencher Wilson Tuckey. The only contender to announce they would contest the leadership, if the spill was successful, was former Howard government minister, Kevin Andrew. The two strongest leadership contender, Tony Abbott and Joe Hockey, decleared early in the day, they would not challenge for the leadership.

Even though the leadership spill was not successful at removing Malcolm Turnbull it does put into question if he will take the Coalition to next year’s election. The close result means as few as seven members need to change their mind for a spill to be successful. The party is also still bitterly divided on the issue of the governments emissions trading scheme with Coalitions members in the senate already crossing the floor.

What Malcolm Turnbull will be hoping for over the next few days is for the ETS to be passed by the senate and the agenda to move to something less divisive. The problem is even with the ETS off the table his polling numbers are low and the bitter infighting over the last two days will likely move them lower. This may however be an advantage by reducing the number of contenders wishing to lead a Coalition so far behind.